Historically, agriculture has formed the foundation of Nepal’s economy, supporting rural livelihoods, maintaining food security, and contributing to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Despite its critical role, the sector’s share of GDP has declined over the past few years due to structural economic transformation, outmigration, and persistent productivity constraints. This study analyzes agriculture’s contribution to Nepal’s GDP from 1974 to 2024, examines government financial investment in the sector over the last two decades, and identifies key factors influencing agricultural performance. Using a descriptive research design, the study employed mixed methods, relying primarily on secondary data from government reports, national statistics, and international development agencies. Findings reveal that agricultural GDP increased between 1974/75 and 2023/24, with some declining trends also over the past few years, highlighting its sustained significance. However, its share of national GDP declined from over 65% in the 1970s to around 21–24% in recent years, reflecting diversification toward services and industry. Government investment in agriculture rose substantially, from NPR 3.81 billion in 2005/06 to over NPR 57 billion in 2024/25, supporting sectoral stability and modernization efforts. Key determinants of agricultural GDP included land availability, labor force, foreign direct investment, exports, and climatic conditions, while natural disasters and rural labor migration constrained growth. The study concludes that agriculture remains indispensable for employment and poverty reduction, even as its GDP share declines. Strengthening mechanization, climate-resilient practices, and targeted investment in infrastructure and markets is vital to enhance productivity and sustain balanced, inclusive economic growth in Nepal.
Keywords: Agricultural contribution, GDP, boosting economy
Agriculture has long been regarded as the cornerstone of Nepal’s economy, playing a crucial role in supporting rural livelihoods, maintaining food security, and contributing to the nation’s overall development (Arzumanyan, 2024). A large portion of the population continues to engage in farming, and even in recent years, over half of Nepalis depend on agricultural activities, either directly or indirectly, for their means of living (Khatri & Timsina, 2023). In the 1970s, agriculture accounted for more than two-thirds of Nepal’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Nonetheless, as the economy progressively diversified toward services and industry, agriculture’s share in GDP has gradually declined (Nepal Economic Forum, 2023). Over the past twenty years, the relative contribution of agriculture to GDP has shown a downward trend, despite increases in total output. In the early 2000s, the sector contributed over 30 percent of GDP, but by 2023 its proportion had fallen to approximately 21 percent (Dhakal, 2022c). This change illustrates the structural transformation typical of developing nations, where non-agricultural sectors grow faster than the farming sector. Even with its shrinking share, agriculture continues to be vital for creating employment, reducing poverty, and ensuring food supply. The sector, however, faces substantial challenges to its productivity and competitiveness. Small, fragmented landholdings, reliance on monsoon rains, limited mechanization, inadequate infrastructure, and weak market linkages have hindered progress (Dhital, 2017). Additionally, climate change has intensified risks through erratic rainfall, floods, and droughts. Rural outmigration and increased remittance inflows have further altered village economies—reducing the agricultural workforce while raising food consumption and imports (Kapri & Ghimire, 2020). In response to these challenges, the Government of Nepal has introduced programs such as the Agriculture Development Strategy (ADS 2015–2035) and the Prime Minister’s Agriculture Modernization Project.
Over the last twenty years, Nepal has witnessed a significant decline in the agriculture sector’s contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), despite a large proportion of the population continuing to work in farming (Thapa, 2024). According to the Nepal Economic Forum, agriculture represented over 30 % of GDP in the fiscal year 2013/14, but by 2022/23, this share had declined to nearly 24 %. In 2023/24, the sector’s contribution to GDP was approximately 24.09%, while around 62% of households were still engaged in agricultural activities. This discrepancy between employment and output underscores a critical productivity gap and raises concerns regarding sectoral efficiency (Rising Nepal, 2023). Several factors contribute to this decline. Fragmented landholdings have reduced farm sizes and discouraged large-scale cultivation, thereby constraining productivity and economic returns. Infrastructure inadequacies, including limited irrigation coverage, insufficient cold storage, and poor market access, further restrict commercialization and value addition (Nepal Economic Forum, 2025). In addition, subsistence-oriented farming predominates, with low adoption of modern practices and limited use of high-quality inputs such as improved seeds and fertilizers, thereby limiting yield potential (Belete & Wato, 2020). Climate change adds further challenges, as unpredictable rainfall, droughts, and floods increasingly threaten crop productivity and food security (Malla, 2009). Recent events, such as the rapid spread of lumpy skin disease affecting over a million cattle, have caused severe losses in livestock production, increasing pressure on agricultural livelihoods (Molla et al., 2017). Furthermore, Nepal’s agriculture sector exists within a wider economic context where remittances and services have expanded, often surpassing agricultural growth. Between 2012 and 2022, agriculture’s share of GDP fell from roughly 30 % to 21 %, while remittance inflows rose substantially (Dangal et al., 2023). This trend reflects structural transformation, but also points to dependence on external income sources. Despite these challenges, opportunities for revitalization remain. Experts recommend modernization through value-chain development, mechanization, and active involvement of women and youth in agriculture to foster inclusive growth (Stringer et al., 2019).
This study provides evidence of long-term trends in agriculture’s economic role, helping to identify whether the decline in GDP share reflects positive structural diversification or persistent weaknesses in productivity. Second, it offers insights for policymakers to design effective strategies. Third, the research highlights the social relevance of agriculture, as it continues to employ a large share of the labor force and remains linked to rural poverty reduction, food supply, and migration patterns.
The study is limited to 50 years (1974–2024) in studying the contribution of agriculture to the GDP of Nepal and 20 years (2005-2025) to study the governmental financial investment in agriculture in Nepal. Methodologically, it relies on secondary data sources such as government reports, statistical databases. Furthermore, the research focuses on national-level GDP contributions and does not deeply analyze regional or local variations.
Classical economic theory underscores agriculture as the cornerstone of national wealth, with scholars like Smith emphasizing its productive surplus and its essential role in supporting industrial expansion (Brewer, 2011). In Nepal, an economy predominantly based on agriculture, these classical ideas remain pertinent as the sector continues to provide food, employment, and raw materials for other industries. Despite gradual diversification, agriculture’s share in GDP and its contribution to rural livelihoods reflect the classical viewpoint that sustainable economic growth is closely tied to agricultural productivity and the efficient allocation of resources (Christiaensen et al., 2010). Neoclassical economic theory similarly considers agriculture central to economic growth through capital accumulation, technological advancement, and optimized resource allocation (Meijerink & Roza, 2007). The Solow-Swan model identifies agricultural productivity and innovation as critical drivers of long-term growth, whereas endogenous growth theorists highlight the significance of research, knowledge, and human capital (R. K. Paudel, 2020). Investments in agriculture, adoption of technology, and policy reforms can enhance productivity, reduce poverty, and facilitate structural transformation, demonstrating the continued applicability of neoclassical growth theory in Nepal’s agrarian context (Moon & Lee, 2013). Lewis’s dual-sector theory emphasizes shifting surplus labor from subsistence agriculture to the industrial sector as a catalyst for economic growth (Dike, 2003). In Nepal, although agriculture employs most people, productivity often remains low, creating a substantial pool of underutilized labor. The theory underscores how agriculture contributes by supplying food, labor, and savings necessary for industrial development. However, limited industrialization and slow structural transformation have constrained the anticipated benefits. Nepal’s experience reflects both the potential and limitations of Lewis’s framework, showing agriculture’s enduring role in supporting livelihoods while facing challenges in fostering broad-based economic growth (Bhandari, 2024). The Green Revolution Theory highlights technological advancements in seeds, irrigation, and fertilizers as key drivers of agricultural growth (Huang & Wang, 2024). In Nepal, adoption of these innovations since the 1960s has increased cereal yields and improved food security, although uneven infrastructure and dependence on rain-fed agriculture have limited results (Raut et al., 2010). Nevertheless, it emphasizes agriculture’s contribution to economic growth and rural livelihoods. Agricultural Modernization Theory advocates transitioning from subsistence to commercial, technology-driven farming to promote economic development (Yang & Zhu, 2013).
Policy Review
The Constitution of Nepal (2015) identifies agriculture as a fundamental pillar of the economy, safeguarding farmers’ rights, encouraging modernization, ensuring food sovereignty, and promoting equitable distribution of resources to support inclusive growth and sustainability. The Agriculture Development Strategy (ADS) outlines a comprehensive framework for advancing Nepal’s agricultural sector (Agriculture Development Strategy 2015–2035 – Climate Change Laws of the World, n.d.). It assesses the sector’s past and present performance and its contribution to economic growth. The Agriculture Mechanization Policy 2014 aims to expand the use of modern agricultural tools and machinery to enhance productivity in Nepal (NPC, 2014). Additionally, Nepal’s land reform policy seeks to guarantee equitable land distribution, protect tenant rights, and foster agricultural productivity (Paudel & Saito, 2015).
In Nepal, the agriculture sector accounted for approximately 25% of the national GDP in 2020/21, compared to 32% in 2011/12 (Dhakal, 2022). These findings indicate that the contribution of agriculture to the national economy is declining, even though its significance to the economy remains substantial. Agriculture is a key sector that plays a vital role in generating employment and alleviating poverty within a country (Hossain et al., 2024). More than 60% of the rural workforce is engaged in agriculture (Yogi et al., 2025). The role of agriculture in strengthening the national economy is largely positive, although it faces various challenges (Poudel et al., 2021).
This research employs a descriptive research design to analyze the contribution of the agriculture sector to Nepal’s economy over the last 50 years, from 1974-2024.
This study employed mixed-methods research. Qualitative and quantitative data on agriculture and economic growth were collected and analyzed, sourced from different secondary documents.
This study employed a quantitative methodology, collecting secondary datasets sourced from Nepal governmental agencies and international development organizations, such as the Nepal government, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, the Ministry of Finance, and the Nepal government, National Statistics Office.
Table 1: Contribution of agriculture to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over 50 years
| Years Count | Fiscal Year | Contribution to GDP (in Million NPR) |
| 1 | 1974/75 | 1,143.50 |
| 2 | 1975/76 | – |
| 3 | 1976/77 | 1,038.90 |
| 4 | 1977/78 | 1,161.60 |
| 5 | 1978/79 | 1,336.50 |
| 6 | 1979/80 | 1,352.00 |
| 7 | 1980/81 | 1,551.00 |
| 8 | 1981/82 | 1,771.50 |
| 9 | 1982/83 | 1,908.20 |
| 10 | 1983/84 | 2,257.00 |
| 11 | 1984/85 | 2,276.10 |
| 12 | 1985/86 | 2,713.60 |
| 13 | 1986/87 | 3,062.30 |
| 14 | 1987/88 | 3,675.50 |
| 15 | 1988/89 | 4,257.20 |
| 16 | 1989/90 | 5,047.00 |
| 17 | 1990/91 | 5,536.80 |
| 18 | 1991/92 | 6,515.60 |
| 19 | 1992/93 | 7,009.00 |
| 20 | 1993/94 | 8,058.90 |
| 21 | 1994/95 | 8,556.90 |
| 22 | 1995/96 | 9,689.60 |
| 23 | 1996/97 | 10,878.50 |
| 24 | 1997/98 | 11,249.50 |
| 25 | 1998/99 | 13,237.30 |
| 26 | 1999/2000 | 14,513.10 |
| 27 | 2000/01 | 15,562.45 |
| 28 | 2001/02 | 16,609.02 |
| 29 | 2002/03 | 17,280.26 |
| 30 | 2003/04 | 18,612.49 |
| 31 | 2004/05 | 19,936.81 |
| 32 | 2005/06 | 21,170.44 |
| 33 | 2006/07 | 22,682.30 |
| 34 | 2007/08 | 24,719.10 |
| 35 | 2008/09 | 30,955.31 |
| 36 | 2009/10 | 39,575.53 |
| 37 | 2010/11 | 48,032.61 |
| 38 | 2011/12 | 52,885.11 |
| 39 | 2012/13 | 55,794.00 |
| 40 | 2013/14 | 61,309.38 |
| 41 | 2014/15 | 64,271.28 |
| 42 | 2015/16 | 66,555.33 |
| 43 | 2016/17 | 72,926.95 |
| 44 | 2017/18 | 77,187.49 |
| 45 | 2018/19 | 83,288.73 |
| 46 | 2019/20 | 86,251.80 |
| 47 | 2020/21 | 95,849.48 |
| 48 | 2021/22 | 90,400.60 |
| 49 | 2022/23 | 89,350.90 |
| 50 | 2023/24 | 86,223.80 |
Source: Government of Nepal, Ministry of Finance
The table presents the contribution of agriculture to GDP in million Nepalese Rupees (NPR) over 50 years in Nepal from the fiscal year 1974/75 to 2023/24. It is observed that the GDP has grown significantly over the decades. Starting at 1,143.5 million in 1974/75, it reached 121,664.8 million by 2023/24. This represents a 100-fold increase, highlighting the country’s economic expansion. It can be observed that the GDP grew steadily but slowly, with some fluctuations by 1975/76, likely due to data issues or economic disruptions, as the data could not be found. By 1989/90, GDP crossed the 5,000 million NPR mark. The most dramatic growth happened in the last 15 years, with GDP nearly tripling from 48,032.61 million NPR in 2010/11 to 86,223.80 million by 2023/24. The highest single-year increase was between 2008/09 and 2009/10, from 30,955.31 to 39,575.53 million.
Table 2: Government budget allocation for agriculture development over the last 20 years
| Sn | English fiscal year | Nepali fiscal year | Allocated budget |
| 1 | 2005/2006 | 2062/63 | 3,810,000,000.00 |
| 2 | 2006/2007 | 2063/64 | 3,960,000,000.00 |
| 3 | 2007/2008 | 2064/65 | 5,820,000,000.00 |
| 4 | 2008/2009 | 2065/66 | 5,910,000,000.00 |
| 5 | 2009/2010 | 2066/67 | 8,060,000,000.00 |
| 6 | 2010/2011 | 2067/68 | 4,730,000,000.00 |
| 7 | 2011/2012 | 2068/69 | 3,000,000,000.00 |
| 8 | 2012/2013 | 2069/70 | 19,015,740.00 |
| 9 | 2013/2014 | 2070/71 | 9,320,000,000.00 |
| 10 | 2014/2015 | 2071/72 | 23,280,000,000.00 |
| 11 | 2015/2016 | 2072/73 | 26,680,000,000.00 |
| 12 | 2016/2017 | 2073/74 | 27,360,000,000.00 |
| 13 | 2017/2018 | 2074/75 | 30,400,000,000.00 |
| 14 | 2018/2019 | 2075/76 | 14,297,500,000.00 |
| 15 | 2019/2020 | 2076/77 | 34,800,000,000.00 |
| 16 | 2020/2021 | 2077/78 | 41,400,000,000.00 |
| 17 | 2021/2022 | 2078/79 | 45,090,000,000.00 |
| 18 19 20 | 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 | 2079/80 2080/81 2081/82 | 55,970,000,000.00 58,980,000,000.00 57,290,000,000.00 |
Source: (Budget speeches, 2005/6-2024/2025)
The table presents the data on how much the agricultural budget was allocated by the Nepal government from 2005/2006 to 2024/2025. The government had allocated NPR 3,810,000,000.00 in 2005/2006 for the development of the agricultural sector in Nepal. Just after 10 years, in 2014/2015, the government allocated NPR 23,280,000,000.00. Similarly, the government had allocated NPR 57,290,000,000.00 for overall agricultural development in 2024/2025 (2081/82) in the country.
Influencing factors on the contribution of agriculture to the national economy
Jha and Dhakal (2021) found that the factors of production, the pattern of agricultural land, the workforce, and gross fixed capital formation affected the national income or GDP. The finding showed that natural disasters like earthquakes, floods, etc., can directly hinder agriculture in contributing to the national economy. The study further reveals that GDP is significantly influenced by agricultural land and the labor force, while gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) showed no significant effect. On average, a 1% rise in agricultural land and labor force leads to a 1.1% and 1.7% increase in GDP, respectively. Therefore, policies promoting the expansion of agricultural land utilization and greater employment of the workforce should be prioritized to strengthen Nepal’s economy.
As economies develop, agriculture’s share in GDP generally declines because of mechanization, rural-to-urban migration, and the expansion of manufacturing, services, and technology sectors. Consequently, the contribution of agriculture to GDP is steadily decreasing in Nepal, while the significance of non-agricultural sectors continues to grow (Bhattarai, 2025).
The further study found that factors such as rural population, life expectancy, foreign direct investment, inflation rate, total exports of goods and services, and the ratio of agricultural exports to imports significantly influenced the share of agriculture in GDP across the selected countries (De Sormeaux & Pemberton, 2011).
The next study also shows that variables such as pesticides, electricity, rainfall, and seeds are statistically significant, indicating that they had a considerable influence on agricultural GDP during the specified period (Reddy & Dutta, 2018).
This study found that agriculture contributed significantly to GDP growth over the last 50 years (1974-2024) in Nepal. However, a declining trend has also occurred in recent years (2024/25, which may be due to various reasons. It is consistent with the study of Dhakal (2022b), which found a declining trend in agriculture’s contribution to national GDP in Nepal. Overall, the contribution of agriculture to GDP is observed to be positive over the last 50 years, even if some declining trends in recent years, which is consistent with the study conducted by Poudel et al. (2021b).
The financial investment of the Nepal government has played a vital role in impacting the agriculture sector’s contribution to the national economy. The financial investment of the Nepal government in the agricultural sector has been observed to increase over the last 20 years. This finding is parallel with the findings of Mishra 2024.
This study highlights that agricultural land, labor force, rural population, FDI, exports, and natural factors like rainfall significantly impact agriculture directly and consequently GDP. While agriculture’s share in Nepal’s economy is declining due to modernization and sectoral shifts, policies enhancing land use, workforce participation, and input availability remain crucial for sustaining agricultural growth.
The research illustrates that agriculture has maintained a crucial role in the growth of Nepal’s GDP over the last five decades, even though its contribution has shown a declining pattern in recent years. Between 1974/75 and 2023/24, agricultural GDP grew, highlighting its significance in driving the nation’s economic development. Nevertheless, structural transformations in the economy, including industrialization, mechanization, and the expanding influence of the service sector, have gradually lowered agriculture’s share in GDP. Government expenditure on agriculture has consistently risen, supporting sustained production and overall economic stability. Major determinants affecting agricultural GDP encompass agricultural land, labor availability, foreign direct investment, export performance, and natural conditions such as rainfall. Despite these factors, frequent natural disasters, rural labor migration, and restricted modernization continue to impede steady growth within the agricultural sector.
Implication
Policies should prioritize the optimal use of agricultural land and the greater engagement of the rural labor force to boost productivity. Promoting mechanization, expanding irrigation systems, and adopting modern technologies are vital to offset labor shortages arising from migration. Enhancing disaster readiness and implementing climate-resilient farming practices are essential to mitigate risks from floods, droughts, and earthquakes. Although agriculture continues to play a significant role, the government must balance investments between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors to achieve inclusive and sustainable economic development. The rising budgetary allocations for agriculture need to be applied strategically to yield maximum benefits, particularly in areas such as research, infrastructure, and market accessibility.
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